New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday projected below normal rainfall for the 2026 southwest monsoon season, raising concerns for rain-dependent agricultural regions across the country.
In its updated long-range forecast for the June-September monsoon season, the IMD said India is likely to receive rainfall equivalent to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4%. The forecast indicates the strongest probability of below-normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon period.
According to the weather agency, rainfall over Northeast India is expected to remain within the normal range, estimated between 94 and 106% of the LPA. However, Central India, Northwest India, and South Peninsular India are likely to record below-normal rainfall during the season.
In a detailed post on X, the IMD also warned that rainfall in the Monsoon Core Zone – which covers a large part of India’s rainfed agricultural belt – is expected to remain below normal. The agency said most parts of the country are likely to witness reduced seasonal rainfall, although some areas in northwestern and northeastern India, parts of eastern peninsular India, and isolated pockets in eastern and east-central regions may receive normal to above normal rainfall.
For June 2026, the IMD has forecast below normal rainfall across the country, with monthly rainfall expected to remain under 92% of the LPA in many regions. Only limited areas in northwestern India, the Northeast, parts of the southern peninsula, and isolated pockets of central India are likely to receive normal or above normal rainfall during the month.
The forecast also points to warmer conditions across much of India in June. Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal in most regions, though some pockets in central, northwestern, and eastern India may record near-normal or below-normal temperatures.
The IMD further warned of increased heat wave activity during June in several states, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh. Some isolated pockets in Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu may also experience above normal heat wave days.
On global climate indicators, the IMD said neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions over the equatorial Pacific are gradually evolving towards El Niño conditions, which could influence the monsoon during the season. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are currently prevailing and are expected to continue through the monsoon months.
The IMD is expected to release its forecast for July rainfall in the last week of June 2026.
