New Delhi: Exit polls released today after the conclusion of voting across Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry indicate a likely advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Assam, while presenting sharply divided projections in West Bengal and clearer trends in southern states.
In Assam, most polling agencies have projected a comfortable majority for the BJP-led alliance in the 126-member Assembly. Estimates across agencies broadly place the alliance between 85 and 101 seats, while the Congress-led alliance is expected to remain behind with projections ranging from around 23 to 39 seats.
West Bengal, however, shows no clear consensus among pollsters. While agencies such as Peoples Pulse and Janmat Polls project a decisive victory for the ruling Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee, others including Matrize, P-Marq, Poll Diary and Praja Poll give an advantage to the BJP. With the majority mark set at 148 in the 294-member Assembly, projections vary widely, indicating a highly competitive contest.
In Tamil Nadu, most exit polls suggest the DMK-led alliance is ahead, though some agencies indicate a closer contest involving the AIADMK alliance and TVK, pointing to a fragmented electoral picture. In Kerala, projections across agencies consistently place the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) ahead of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF).
Polling in West Bengal was conducted in two phases with high voter participation, both phases recording close to or above 90 per cent turnout. Tamil Nadu also saw a turnout exceeding 84 per cent.
Exit Poll Snapshot (Agency-wise Projections)
Assam (126 seats)
- Axis My India: BJP+ 88–100 | Congress+ 24–36
- Poll Diary: BJP+ 86–101 | Congress+ 15–26
- Matrize: BJP+ 85–95 | Congress+ 25–32 | Others 6–12
West Bengal (294 seats)
- Janmat Polls: TMC+ 195–205 | BJP+ 80–90
- Peoples Pulse: TMC+ 177–187 | BJP+ 95–110
- Matrize: BJP+ 146–161 | TMC+ 125–140
- P-Marq: BJP+ 150–175 | TMC+ 118–138
- Praja Poll: BJP+ 178–208 | TMC+ 85–110
- Poll Diary: BJP+ 142–171 | TMC+ 99–127
Tamil Nadu (234 seats)
- Peoples Pulse: DMK+ 125–145 | AIADMK+ 65–80 | TVK+ 18–24
- P-Marq: DMK+ 125–145 | AIADMK+ 65–85 | TVK+ 16–26
- Matrize: DMK+ 122–132 | AIADMK+ 87–100
- Axis My India: TVK+ 98–120 | DMK+ 92–110
Kerala (140 seats)
- Axis My India: UDF 78–90 | LDF 49–62
- Peoples Pulse: UDF 75–85 | LDF 55–65
Puducherry (30 seats)
- Axis My India: NDA+ 16–20 | Congress+ 6–8
- Praja Poll: NDA+ 19–25 | Congress+ 6–10
The 2026 election cycle witnessed high-voltage campaigning across states, with issues ranging from governance and welfare delivery to regional identity and electoral roll revisions. In West Bengal, the contest remained largely bipolar between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP, with the Congress-Left alliance attempting limited gains.
Past experience suggests caution in interpreting exit polls. In 2021, most projections underestimated the scale of the Trinamool Congress victory in West Bengal.
Exit polls are indicative and not definitive. The final outcome will be known when votes are counted on May 4.
