New Delhi: India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday forecast below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall across the country for 2026, based on current climate indicators.
The projection was shared during a press conference addressed by M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, and Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD.
According to the IMD, the seasonal rainfall during the southwest monsoon period from June to September is expected to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model margin of error of ±5%. The LPA for the 1971-2020 period is 87 cm.
Spatial distribution indicates that below-normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the country. However, some regions in the northeast, northwest, and southern peninsular India are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
On large-scale climate drivers, the IMD said El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions are likely to remain neutral between April and June. Thereafter, El Niño conditions are very likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently in a neutral phase. It is expected to turn positive towards the later part of the monsoon season, which is considered favourable for rainfall.
The IMD also noted that Northern Hemisphere and Eurasian snow cover during January to March 2026 remained slightly below normal, a factor that supports monsoon rainfall.
