New Delhi: The catastrophic glacier collapse that triggered devastating floods across Nepal and Tibet last month was likely made more dangerous by decades of climate warming, according to the first scientific assessment of the disaster.
The study found that unusually warm conditions preceded the collapse of a massive section of glacier and rock on Langtang Lirung mountain on August 26. The collapse released an estimated 110 million cubic metres of snow and ice into the valley, generating a powerful flash flood that swept through downstream communities with little warning, according to guardian.com.
More than 1,300 people lost their lives in the disaster, while over 5,000 others are still reported missing. A section of the mountain measuring around 200,000 square metres fell approximately 1,400 metres before hitting the valley floor with such force that the impact was recorded as an earthquake.
The resulting surge of ice, water, rock and sediment travelled downstream at speeds exceeding 110 mph, destroying homes, settlements, roads, bridges and other infrastructure and leaving survivors stranded.
Scientists involved in the assessment said the disaster could not be attributed to a single weather event or solely to climate change. Instead, they described it as a compound crisis in which several geological and climatic factors combined, with decades of atmospheric warming contributing to the destabilisation of the high-mountain environment.
Researchers from World Weather Attribution, in collaboration with climate specialists including scientists at Imperial College London, identified long-term changes around the glacier that they said showed clear fingerprints of climate change.
Dr Ben Clarke, who researches extreme weather and climate change at Imperial College London, said the warming climate was transforming the high-mountain environment and affecting several potential drivers of the collapse.
The researchers stressed that their findings did not establish climate breakdown as the fundamental cause of the disaster. Rather, they described climate change as a destabilising factor acting on an already vulnerable geological setting.
The scale of the rock avalanche was also highly unusual. According to the study, events of a similar size are estimated to occur only once every 1,000 to 10,000 years. The researchers said the disaster demonstrated that the limits of adaptation were already being reached in vulnerable mountain communities.
The disaster has also raised concerns about the growing risks faced by communities living downstream of glaciers and unstable mountain slopes. Even where local warning systems and adaptation measures are in place, an event of this magnitude can overwhelm communities within minutes.
Nepal has formally sought financial assistance from the UN loss and damage fund to address the destruction caused by the floods, a process that requires evidence connecting the disaster to the climate crisis.
Nepal’s Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal has called on major emitting countries, including China and India, to recognise shared responsibility for the growing risks faced by climate-vulnerable nations.
Madhab Uprety, senior technical adviser for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, said the scale of the human and economic losses highlighted the need for major reductions in global emissions as well as greater support for vulnerable countries dealing with climate-related damage.
The findings therefore shift attention beyond the immediate glacier collapse to a broader concern: how continued warming could alter the stability of the world’s highest mountain regions and increase the risks faced by communities living far downstream.
