New Delhi: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that an El Niño event is likely to develop in the coming months, with an 80% probability during June-August 2026.
According to the latest WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, the likelihood of El Niño conditions continuing until at least November 2026 is near or above 90%. While some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and peak intensity, most forecast models indicate that the event is likely to be moderate or stronger.
In a press release, the WMO said its El Niño/La Niña Updates are based on a consensus of forecasts from global climate prediction centres, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, and WMO Global Producing Centres. The reports are prepared jointly with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that El Niño was approaching with a high degree of certainty and said its effects could intensify the impacts of global warming. He stressed the need for stronger climate action, faster adoption of renewable energy, protection for vulnerable communities, and wider access to early warning systems.
According to WMO observations, sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific approached El Niño thresholds between late April and mid-May.
The organisation said unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific were contributing to the warming trend. Temperatures in some areas were more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, providing a significant reservoir of heat beneath the surface.
The Southern Oscillation Index, an important atmospheric indicator linked to El Niño, has also shown patterns consistent with the development of the climate phenomenon.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said authorities needed to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event that could increase the risk of drought, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves on land and in the ocean. She noted that the 2023-24 El Niño was among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures observed in 2024.
Saulo added that the WMO community would continue monitoring conditions to support decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors. She also highlighted the importance of seasonal forecasts and early warning systems in reducing risks to lives, economies, and communities.
Alongside the update, WMO has issued a Global Seasonal Climate Update that incorporates other climate drivers to provide more detailed regional forecasts.
